【活动时间】：2025年11月27日（周四）15:00

【活动地点】：suncitygroup太阳新城405

【主办单位】：suncitygroup太阳新城

【讲座主题】： Transport Priority and Composition Effects in Liver Transplantation

【讲座摘要】：China’s Green Path established nationwide transport priority for donor organs to reduce delays and improve liver transplantation outcomes. We document that, following the policy, system-wide average cold ischemia time (CIT) increased and post-transplant survival declined, even though—by design—transport performance for nonlocal organs should have improved. We explain this pattern through a composition mechanism: by shortening travel times, the policy expanded the feasible set of nonlocal livers that previously arrived too late to be used. Hospitals subsequently accepted and transplanted more nonlocal grafts—organs that, even with faster routes, entail inherently longer CIT than local grafts—thereby raising the average CIT across all transplants and offsetting the direct logistics gain. We formalize this mechanism in a model of hospital acceptance and patient matching. The model yields a transparent condition under which average CIT rises after transport priority: when the increase in nonlocal organ availability and acceptance dominates the per-organ CIT savings from faster transport. The model also clarifies how hospital decision rules and patient severity interact with policy to shape outcomes. Empirically, we combine a time-based policy design with a provenance-free method to separate nonlocal from local cases using the distribution of CIT, allowing us to isolate the policy’s direct effect on nonlocal CIT while absorbing contemporaneous changes in local logistics and learning-by-doing in hospital operations. We then test the model’s predictions on case mix (nonlocal share, acceptance of marginal grafts, recipient severity) and outcomes (survival). Our findings highlight a system-level trade-off: logistics reforms that accelerate individual deliveries can worsen aggregate outcomes via equilibrium re-sorting of cases. For policy and management, we caution against KPI regimes that evaluate only transplanted patients and point to guardrails (e.g., eligibility/threshold rules) that preserve urgency and curb price-driven erosion of priority.

【主讲人简介】：

       姜宝军教授现任圣路易斯华盛顿大学奥林suncitygroup太阳新城市场营销学终身正教授，是共享经济、平台战略与运营营销交叉研究领域的国际知名学者。其研究深度融合行为经济学与博弈论，聚焦物联网供应链、P2P共享、消费者公平关切等前沿议题，系统性分析平台商业模式、渠道协调与产品创新策略。成果发表于《Marketing Science》《Management Science》《Journal of Marketing Research》《Manufacturing & Service Operations Management》等UTD24/FT50顶级期刊，曾获美国营销学会Don Lehmann最佳论文奖、入选MSI学者计划，并担任《Production and Operations Management》资深编辑。姜教授拥有卡内基梅隆大学博士及多个理工科学位，擅长以跨学科方法论破解商业实践难题，其研究为数字化环境下的企业竞争与政策设计提供了重要理论支撑。